Gulf state leaders have been keeping a close eye on the chance for a hurricane, especially since we are at the statistical peak of hurricane season this week. As Louisiana Public Radio reports, LSU Health Climatologist Barry Keim says a Bermuda high pressure has kept conditions mild, so far.
“When it’s sort of big and burly and ridged to the west, it tends to push the storm more westward into the Gulf of Mexico. But this year the storms have mostly been going up the East Coast.”
On May 22, 2025, forecasters within NOAA’s National Weather Service predicted (see graphic below) above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year, with a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
On August 7, 2025, the same forecasters adjusted their hurricane season forecast, predicting the likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is not that dissimilar to the initial outlook issued in May.
Keim is also quick to remind everyone that there’s still time for a destructive storm to find the Gulf Coast before this year’s 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season officially comes to an end November 30. And he says there is plenty of historical precedent to back up the argument that major hurricanes can and sometimes do arrive late in the season. “We had a hurricane in 1915 which made landfall on September the 29th. More Recently, we had Rita, which followed Katrina, making landfall on September the 24th. Then we had one, Delta Zeta, as (an) October storm.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – better known as NOAA predicted 13 to 19 named storms this season. So far, there have been six. That’s included five tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and Fernand, and one Hurricane, Erin. It was a long-lived and powerful Cape Verde hurricane that forced August 11, crossed the North Atlantic Ocean, ultimately reaching its peak at Category 5 intensity on August 16, before finally dissipating August 28.
