A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
For more on the bill and how Republicans are working to get it over the finish line, we're joined now by Republican strategist Brendan Buck. He's a partner in the consulting firm Seven Letter, previously a top staff member with two former House speakers, Paul Ryan and John Boehner. So, Brendan, we saw several Republicans switching their votes from no to yes during a procedural vote in the wee overnight hours. What do you think got them to change their vote?
BRENDAN BUCK: Maybe just the reality that they understood this bill is not going to change, and they were really only prolonging the inevitable here. Of course, Donald Trump also weighing in and his staff putting pressure on them, I'm sure, helped a little bit. But there was really nowhere else to go for some of these members. The Senate bill was not going to change. They have this deadline. And there were a really small number of these folks who were wanting to vote no, and I think eventually the walls just sort of closed in on them.
MARTÍNEZ: You mentioned the deadline, this July 4 deadline that the president has hung over all this. What do you make of this? Because Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie insists it's arbitrary, but it kind of feels like a hard deadline to everyone else, I think.
BUCK: Look, Congress doesn't do a lot of things without a deadline. And I actually credit Speaker Mike Johnson with setting this deadline, basically saying here's when we're going to get it done. And a lot of people doubted him and said, A, one, it's arbitrary, or two, it's just not realistic. But he used that really effectively, and I think that increased the pressure. This was all about a pressure campaign. A lot of people didn't want to vote for this. But whether it was to support Donald Trump or to finally just get this done with and over, he put maximum pressure on them. And I think the deadline actually served them very, very well.
MARTÍNEZ: Considering your experience working with GOP House speakers, where do you think Mike Johnson's head is right now? Because he's on the verge of a pretty major victory, one that can give him a nice feather in his cap that - I don't know how much Donald Trump will care about that feather in his cap, but it's one that he can show.
BUCK: Yeah, I mean, let's set aside the substance of the bill. As a matter of marshaling legislation through Congress, I think we should now have a lot of respect for Mike Johnson's abilities. This is a member of Congress who's not been around for very long. He was put into this speakership after only a few terms. And he has proven very adept at this, not only setting those deadlines, but also just having a way with members where they never feel like they're being pressured too much but always end up coming around.
Now, look, we can't overlook the Donald Trump factor. That is, of course, what is driving a lot of this. But time and time again, he has gone to the floor unclear if they're going to have the votes to pass something, and every single time, he's delivered. And I think that will give him a lot of credibility going forward. And it seems like he's got a pretty firm grip over the job at this point.
MARTÍNEZ: Hakeem Jeffries is still speaking right now. How quickly as soon as he finishes will you think Johnson will call this vote?
BUCK: Oh, I think very quickly. They only allowed for a total hour of one debate. Of course, Hakeem Jeffries speaking doesn't count towards that. But I think they're ready to get this done. I think they're ready to get out of town. That's also another factor here. I think these members of Congress are people. They have families. They want to get home. So I think they're going to vote very quickly. Whether or not that vote takes as long as the last ones - hopefully not. I imagine they have the votes wrapped up at this point. But this could be all said and done by this morning.
MARTÍNEZ: An hour of debate. What's there to debate at this point? Do you think, I mean, there's actually any room for drama here?
BUCK: I don't know that there's drama, but I'm still very interested to see how the vote goes. Republicans can only lose three votes. Four would defeat the bill. And there's definitely going to be a number of members, particularly those moderate members or members in swing states, who don't want to have to vote for this. It would probably imperil their reelection. So I think they're going to limit the defections to three, but it will be interesting to see who those three are and whether there's any sort of standoff of who gets to vote no.
MARTÍNEZ: How much do you think President Trump cares about how the bill may play out in the 2026 midterms?
BUCK: This has been a president remarkably disengaged from this process. You know, I've been through many legislative battles where you have presidents who, you know, they and their staff are very closely involved. And this president had a very hands-off approach. You recall there was a debate about one bill versus two bills, and he didn't really care. And he's talked about whether we're doing Medicaid or not and sort of took both sides of that issue. I think he likes having a win, and that's ultimately what this came down to. I mean, the argument being made to a lot of Republicans to vote for it at this point is not, hey, this is a great bill. It's we need to give Donald Trump this win. I think that's a terrible way to look at your job as a policymaker, but it's probably going to carry the day here.
MARTÍNEZ: A win for Donald Trump today, but will it be a win for the Republican Party later? Because Democrats are going to position themselves to run on this bill in the midterms.
BUCK: Absolutely. And I think one of the huge problems Republicans have at this point was this started off as an extension of the 2017 tax law and ended up becoming defined as a health care debate. The Medicaid changes that they have made, I think, are going to be really significant both to people's lives, but also politically. And it's a shame because the health care policy here was really just done as an offset. They were trying to find some savings. It wasn't done as a way to improve people's health. So that leaves them very vulnerable, and a lot of members are going to have to answer for why they voted for something that could potentially cut millions of people from their coverage.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Republican strategist Brendan Buck. He's a partner at the consulting firm Seven Letter. Brendan, thanks.
BUCK: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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