The 2026 midterm elections are fast approaching. Early voting begins in less than three weeks, on February 16, in Arkansas, for that state’s preferential primary. Arkansas’ preferential primary election then takes place on Tuesday, March 3. That’s followed four weeks later, on March 31, for Arkansas’ General Primary (Runoff). What sets the 2026 election cycle apart from most previous midterm elections is the sheer volume of generational news events unfolding on a seemingly weekly basis. Take, for example:
- The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro January 3.
- NATO military forces landing on Greenland beginning January 15, after President Trump threatened to take Greenland “the hard way.” and most recently,
- The second fatal shooting this month in Minneapolis of a U.S. citizen by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, on Saturday, January 24.
Such national headlines often remind analysts of a famous political maxim popularized by legendary Speaker of the House Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (D-Mass.) that “All politics is local.”
And in that same spirit, there is widespread speculation about what the midterm elections could mean for Arkansas’ all Republican congressional delegation. Speaking on “Talk Business & Politics,” Freelance journalist Steve Brawner predicted that Arkansas’ two U.S. Senators – John Boozman and Tom Cotton – will very likely stay in the majority. Brawner explained that’s largely because unlike a Red/Republican state or Blue/Democratic state, there are simply not enough “purple” – or competitive states - that could swing the balance of power to Democrats in the U.S. Senate.
In This second year of the 119th Congress (2025-2027), Republicans have the majority in the Senate with 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47 seats, which includes 2 independents who caucus with Democrats.
As for the U.S. House, Republicans hold a razor thin majority, one of the smallest in nearly a century, of 218-213, with four vacancies. Brawner says his projections for the House GOP, including Arkansas’ four Republican Congressmen are not as promising.
“If you look at the midterm elections throughout history, especially recent history, you have these massive turnovers occasionally, forty, fifty, sixty seats. But we don’t live in that country any more. We live in a country where the states are polarized, the districts are polarized, and the districts are heavily gerrymandered. So, as far as being a huge swing, I don’t see that happening; but enough to give the Democrats control, yes. And what that means is that of the four members of the Arkansas House delegation, three of whom have committee chairmanships, and then one, Steve Womack, who has a very important subcommittee chairmanship, they will lose those chairmanships in this coming, next year.”
Arkansas’ four U.S. Congressmen include:
*Rep. Rick Crawford (R, 1st District), East Arkansas
*Rep. French Hill (R, 2nd District) Central Arkansas
*Rep. Steve Womack (R, 3rd District) Northwest Arkansas
*Rep. Bruce Westerman (R, 4th District) Southwestern Arkansas.
