A new report finds Republicans could gain 19 congressional seats and roughly 200 state legislative seats, largely in 10 Southern states with GOP-controlled legislatures. As Louisiana Public Radio reports, it may all depend on how the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) rules in Louisiana’s redistricting case.
The analysis of the potential consequences of the SCOTUS ruling came in the study by Fair Fight Action, a civil rights group based in Georgia, along with its partners at Black Voters Matter Fund. Louisiana v. Callais challenges the premise that drawing voting districts to comply with the Voting Rights Act of 1965 violates the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments, which guarantee voting rights.
Louisiana redrew its map last year to better reflect U.S. Census data, and create a second majority-Black district. If the nation’s High Court rules to limit the Voting Rights Act, the report’s analysis projects this will trigger even more U.S. states to redraw their own congressional districts as well, also ahead of the next U.S. Census.
Historically, it is only after Census results come back that states typically examine congressional maps and look for any potential adjustments that may be necessary, or spot trends to watch more closely.
This legal case now before the Supreme Court all began when a group of non-Black voters sued, claiming the redrawn Louisiana congressional map constituted racial gerrymandering. This suit quested the legality of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Ironically, its very creation was intended to guarantee that the right to vote cannot be denied based on race. Congress amended Section 2 to prohibit any voting practice that “results in” discrimination.”
One argument that has attracted much attention in this debate comes from Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. While not citing any evidence, Justice Kavanaugh suggested there should be some kind of time limit or expiration on “race-based remedies” to discrimination because such protections “cannot extend indefinitely into the future.”
Fair Fight Action Report Examples:
Here are some examples of the potential new state legislative maps Republicans could draw if the Voting Right’s Act’s Section 2 protections are eliminated:
(Arkansas) Arkansas could eliminate up to 15 Black majority districts in its legislature. Democrats are currently in the super minority in both chambers, but their caucus numbers could be reduced even further. A redraw could likely eliminate Democratic representation entirely in the Senate and drop their House numbers to single digits.
(Louisiana) The source of the Callais case is also one of the states that could see a massive impact to its state legislative map. A redraw could eliminate up to 23 Black-majority districts and lock Democrats deep into a super minority in both chambers.
(Texas) Hispanic voters could lose 8 Hispanic majority districts in Texas. Democrats are already in the super minority in the Senate, but the current map has a potential path to a House majority. Although the Texas Constitution’s restriction on county splits regarding House districts makes it difficult for Republicans to doom Democrats to the super minority by redrawing the map, a redraw could still make it tough to stay above the super minority threshold and Democrats could be stuck in a super minority in the Senate.
*The 10 states in the South with GOP-controlled legislatures [beyond Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas], include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
As for the timing of the SCOTUS ruling, some Louisiana state lawmakers say they had been informed there is a chance the High Court could make an announcement in late 2025 or early 2026, largely because of the timing of the primaries in Spring 2026.
That was all the motivation it took for the state legislature to shift the primary election back roughly one month. So, instead of Saturday, April 18, 2026, the party primary for Louisiana's congressional races and some municipal elections will take place on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Primary runoffs will now take place on June 2, 2026.
