Scientists are using two words to describe forecasts for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season: “extremely active.” In fact, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) estimate that this year’s Atlantic season could see 23 named storms, the highest on record. There have been years where there were more than 23 named storms, but never a forecast for that many. Other forecasts also predict a high number of storms. Of the nearly two dozen named storms, the CSU forecast calls for 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. For context, the average long-term pattern from 1991-2020 stands at 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
Louisiana’s interim state climatologist and WAFB meteorologist Jay Grymes served as a guest of the public radio program “Louisiana Considered.” That’s where he explained a critical factor in hurricane season forecasting: “So, when we look at the Atlantic sea surface temperature, water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, one of the things we note is that over the last several months those temperatures have been at or near record levels. Now they’ve come down just a little bit in recent weeks. But those waters are still warmer than normal. And since the Atlantic Ocean water temperatures sort of serve as an indicator for the fuel for tropical systems, above normal temperatures means, typically, above normal activity.”
The season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced that it will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks about two weeks prior to the start of the season, on May 15.
