ADRIAN MA, HOST:
I'd like to stay with this last point - the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Lebanon and Israel. It's been four days since the U.S.-brokered agreement took effect. And it's paused weeks of heavy fighting in southern Lebanon where hundreds of thousands, even millions of people have been displaced fleeing the violence.
In a region where tensions have steadily escalated for over a year, the agreement is a rare example of diplomatic success. And I wanted to get a better sense of what that agreement means more broadly for the region. So I spoke with Paul Salem with the Middle East Institute, which is a nonpartisan think tank based in Washington. Our conversation began with him explaining how this agreement aims to bring a more lasting stability between Israel and Hezbollah. The first phase of this agreement unfolds over a 60-day period.
PAUL SALEM: In which Hezbollah forces and Israel should withdraw from that strip of southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army, along with U.N. forces, should take up positions. And if all that goes well, then the ceasefire, or truce, extends indefinitely, and the U.S. will move to begin negotiations to demarcate the land border between Israel and Lebanon. So this is intended to be a lasting truce.
MA: Now, up until this point, Israel claims it's been successful in significantly degrading Hezbollah's fighting capabilities. What's your assessment of the current state of the Hezbollah military?
SALEM: There's no doubt that Hezbollah has been dealt a staggering blow. It has lost all of its top leadership, particularly its charismatic longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. And they lost a lot of positions, a lot of military sites, a lot of fighters. The way to really measure it is that Hezbollah's function was to deter Israel from attacking Iran. That deterrence is absolutely gone. Israel attacked Iran directly once and might do so again. So yes, Hezbollah has lost its major strategic function.
It's also agreed to a very serious set of concessions - withdrawing from the South, which is its main area of operations, and accepting - and this is critical - accepting American supervision of the long-term execution of this truce, knowing that Iran considers America an enemy. The fact that they agreed that America supervises this is a big concession as well.
MA: Zooming out just a little bit, where does this leave Hamas in Gaza? Hezbollah has been a key ally for the militant group in its conflict with Israel. Does this essentially leave Hamas on its own in the region?
SALEM: Well, I mean, according to Hamas leaders, they felt that they've largely been alone from the get-go. I mean, Hezbollah, yes, opened a second front, yes, pinned down some of the IDF in northern Israel. But in effect, Israel was really undeterred in its devastation of Hamas, its siege and, you know, what you - basically, what is very close to genocide and ethnic cleansing, all - you know, all the devastation in Gaza. So Hamas has felt for a long time that they are completely on their own.
But I think Hamas' calculations have long, you know - what's left of Hamas, those few people in the tunnels - they know they've lost militarily. There's no way for them to win, so they are just trying to survive. They do have hostages. They're still hiding out in some tunnels. Their calculation is that if they can simply survive and be able to make a deal with Israel at the end, they can say, well, you know, we're still here. So in their bid to be - to remain an important movement within the Palestinian communities under occupation in the West Bank and Gaza, yes, they might be militarily defeated, but they are not politically defeated at all.
MA: This is all happening at a time where the U.S. President-elect, Donald Trump, is less than two months out from his inauguration. Once he's in power, what impact do you think his administration would have on all this?
SALEM: I think they've already had an impact. Candidate Trump made it very clear to Netanyahu that he's with him. He supports him in these wars. But he's also been very clear that he wants these wars wrapped up before he assumes office on January 20. And I think, you know, one of the reasons that encouraged Netanyahu to agree to the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon is he knows that will please the incoming president. So I think Netanyahu is wary of Trump. Trump is a tough and unpredictable figure, unlike Biden or Harris, who are neither tough and are very predictable.
MA: Paul Salem is vice president for international engagement with the Middle East Institute. Paul, thanks for joining me.
SALEM: Thank you, Adrian.
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